I put my name in the 5 year hat, for two reasons, which I stated before, not that it matters. =)
First of all, Phase II trials are big. Phase I means they injected a small itty-bitty amount into their scalps, to make sure it didn't form any cancerous cells, etc. And 5 out of 7 grew hair, right? I did talk to one hair transplant surgeon, Dr. Keeny (sp?) a long time ago, and she seemed to be in the know a little bit, saying that the hairs grown were quite thin. So there is reason to hope, and reason to doubt, at the same time.
But Phase II trials, along with all their talk about the technology, really lead me to believe that this is for real. This is such an exciting phase in clinical trials, I think... if they could just get the damn thing kicked off already! =)
I'm hoping 5 years. 10 sucks. Screw 10. I mean come on, we as a species are much smarter than this!! We can do it!!!
and also because they're doing phase 2 soon, which means, if it is successful at all, they'll have no problem releasing it. (apart from regulation committees) but i'm sure somebody on the committee will be bald and suffering, so they'll pass it.
phase 2 trials were supposed to begin a few years ago? well, now that phase 1 is done, phase 2 shouldn't take long at all. i've heard that they've already signed people up. is this is true, then the procedure should take a few months at most (along with observation, and checking for efficiacy).
after a few months of phase 2 being complete, it should start to be availible to people. of course, companies will have to invest in the product first. clinics have to be set up, as intercytex is just doing the "cloning" part of the procedure, we need doctors and surgeons to perform the harvest and implant parts.
to set up all this, should take at most a year, assuming there are people willing to do all this (which there would be, as hair restoration is an industry that's very profitable).
my guess is 2008 to 2010. simply because by 2007, phase 2 will be complete, take 1-3 years to get it "readily" availible to everybody.