I don't know if this one was posted here
A thought about Replicel from The Biotech Watcher (who writing about the Biotech Industry since 15 years).
http://alanhobbes.blogspot.fr/2016/07/shiseido-launches-trial-to-treat.html
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Competitive Ecosystem
RepliCel has more competitors on the horizon. A number or regenerative competitors for treating baldness have re-emerged. For the Japanese market, Kyocera announced that it would develop a product for release in a few years.
We are not surprised. The market dynamics are very attractive. We have been concerned that RepliCel hasn’t been quicker with its product development.
On the surface,
Kyocera’s technology
appears to have some similarities with RepliCel’s technology. Nevertheless,
if the Shiseido / RepliCel trial goes smoothly, it is possible for RCH-01 to be on the market about 18 months ahead of Kyocera’s product in 2018 or 2019.
…but this involves advancing the science with new cell therapies. At this point, anything can happen."
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Our Thoughts
A few years ago, we ran across RepliCel and was initially attracted by its seemingly unorthodox indications. We continue to watch tiny RepliCel because it encapsulates many important features to track: a relationship with Japan; unique regenerative technologies; and boutique underserved markets.
When we wrote earlier this year, we said:
RepliCel is definitely not for the faint of heart nor for the newbie investor. It has a difficult cash position and trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange (RP) and on the OTC Venture Marketplace (REPCF).
At its current valuation, it is downright scary.
RepliCel’s situation is unfortunate. If it was a Nasdaq company, we think it would have a more robust valuation. Good clinical results would then certainly bump the stock.
It’s now a bit of a Hail Mary. RepliCel must receive positive trial results from its skin wrinkle and tendinosis trials. RepliCel then needs to attract another partner or search for a strategic alternative.
If the valuation doesn’t budge even after good clinical results, then we can see multiple scenarios. The company could simply die, it could be purchased, or even taken private."
