SM04554 Phase 2 results

[c_super2]

Does anyone have a theory why sm04554 didn't work? I thought the WNT pathway sounded logical and was based on really good science.

 

[Blackber]

Does anyone have a theory why sm04554 didn't work? I thought the WNT pathway sounded logical and was based on really good science.

I think it's too early to say it didn't work. We haven't even heard directly from Samumed yet.

As others have stated the trial only ran for 3 months. Nothing is going to regrow a full head of hair overnight.

Let's wait to hear something official from Samumed. Everyone is speculating right now.

 

[Hairloss23]

It pretty clearly did work... Maybe one of the reasons small companies like Sammumed/Replicel don't release their findings is cause they know that as soon as they do there will be thousands of mongoloids who are ready to spout out how it is a complete fail even when the results clearly show a different picture. And this is coming from someone who had little faith on SM04554 on it's own. I was pleasantly surprised by the results, yet again it is people who decide to set the bar of expectation incredibly high and then low and behold are upset when the findings read as anything less than "NW7 to NW0 in 4 days, 3 hours and 26 minutes".

 

[Afro_Vacancy]

"In the control group, hair count dropped from 114 hairs per square centimeter to 111.5. In the 0.15% group, hair count increased from 104.9 to 115. In the 0.25% group, hair count increased from 110.8 to 118.5."
Well at the end it looks it works so why being negative? If this is an optimal dose it's fine. Why would you try to put 20liters in a 10liters bucket?

Without the treatment you lose 2.2% density in three months.
With the treatment you gain 8.3% density in three months.

The offset is ~10.5% after 3 months.

- - - Updated - - -

It pretty clearly did work... Maybe one of the reasons small companies like Sammumed/Replicel don't release their findings is cause they know that as soon as they do there will be thousands of mongoloids who are ready to spout out how it is a complete fail even when the results clearly show a different picture. And this is coming from someone who had little faith on SM04554 on it's own. I was pleasantly surprised by the results, yet again it is people who decide to set the bar of expectation incredibly high and then low and behold are upset when the findings read as anything less than "NW7 to NW0 in 4 days, 3 hours and 26 minutes".

At this point they've proven that this is a potential treatment, as was done for CB0301 a few weeks. Whether or not it turns out that way depends on how much change there is after ~12 months, when this drug gets released if ever, how much it costs, and what the safety profile is going to be.

But it's a legitimate prospect.

 

[Blackber]

It pretty clearly did work... Maybe one of the reasons small companies like Sammumed/Replicel don't release their findings is cause they know that as soon as they do there will be thousands of mongoloids who are ready to spout out how it is a complete fail even when the results clearly show a different picture. And this is coming from someone who had little faith on SM04554 on it's own. I was pleasantly surprised by the results, yet again it is people who decide to set the bar of expectation incredibly high and then low and behold are upset when the findings read as anything less than "NW7 to NW0 in 4 days, 3 hours and 26 minutes".

+1

Without the treatment you lose 2.2% density in three months.
With the treatment you gain 8.3% density in three months.

The offset is ~10.5% after 3 months.

- - - Updated - - -



At this point they've proven that this is a potential treatment, as was done for CB0301 a few weeks. Whether or not it turns out that way depends on how much change there is after ~12 months, when this drug gets released if ever, how much it costs, and what the safety profile is going to be.

But it's a legitimate prospect.

+1

 

[champpy]

I guess we now know what to expect when they say "statistically significant".

 

[firstpost]

10% improvement and no sides? I'll take that in a heartbeat!

 

[Tracksterderm]

"In the control group, hair count dropped from 114 hairs per square centimeter to 111.5. In the 0.15% group, hair count increased from 104.9 to 115. In the 0.25% group, hair count increased from 110.8 to 118.5."
Well at the end it looks it works so why being negative? If this is an optimal dose it's fine. Why would you try to put 20liters in a 10liters bucket?

It's kind of funny how the reactions are without having all facts and info yet. Many had such big hopes for this announcement they are now ready to quit coming to the forums. People please... you'll be back here every week, if not every day.

I am a bit disappointed by the results, but what do they mean by going from 104.9 to 115 per square centimeter? Do they consider the whole head? Or only a few centimeters? The bald patch?

 

[SriHanuman]

So it is +10hairs/cm2, balding area is ~150cm2, so that gives us 1500 new hairs on average in three months. And that is bad? If it works on a large percentage, then this is awsome. And like others said, what would happen in 6 or 12 months...

 

[IvanXproject]

By the time they release this product, most of us has lost too much hair anyway.. That is the biggest problem here in my opinion. Maybe we could get SM made somewhere else? (just like CB, RU, Seti etc.).

 

[Pavi]

I wonder what the quality of the hair that grew back was.... Because if it was strong and thick hair that's not bad at all, especially if this is used on Norwood 3 and less

 

[resu]

Why can't anyone just do a modern take on Minoxidil without the sides and with it working on most people? It seems that anyone just doesn't understand the mechanics behind it.

 

[kiwipilu]

to the time machine guy: I would appreciate if you could bring me back CB and SM so I can put
minoxidil finasteride , toppik, vitamins, lasercap dermaroller vpa, licl, stemox, aa, keto, adeno, setip pge2, sulfa, egcg,ru, hat whisky and co in the bin.
Having a hair transplant brb..

 

[Tracksterderm]

So it is +10hairs/cm2, balding area is ~150cm2, so that gives us 1500 new hairs on average in three months. And that is bad? If it works on a large percentage, then this is awsome. And like others said, what would happen in 6 or 12 months...

Excellent point!

 

[Norwood One]

If i'm understanding correctly, they're going back to phase I with a longer trial and different dosing? or is a 6mo trial ongoing and its results will come out 3 months from now?

 

[direk]

 

[youngkidwithhairloss]

so instead of focusing on how to stop all androgen receptor expressions in our scalp, we are focusing on this wnt pathway bullshiz, which is so far from the root cause of male pattern baldness . Greeeaaaaaaaaattttttttttttttt job science

 

[SriHanuman]

Because it's total ****. These numbers are a joke.

Not even close to minoxidil...

Can not find any data on minoxidil after 3 months. So, where did you get your data and numbers?

 

[buckthorn]

so instead of focusing on how to stop all androgen receptor expressions in our scalp, we are focusing on this wnt pathway bullshiz, which is so far from the root cause of male pattern baldness . Greeeaaaaaaaaattttttttttttttt job science

This would be gene therapy... years and years away. Way too much ethical concern as well, especially for a "cosmetic issue"... We need something like RU on steroids, haha... that will just bind with immense affinity and not let go.

 

[Swoop]

Can not find any data on minoxidil after 3 months. So, where did you get your data and numbers?

Check below and you'll see it hovers around ~30%. Do google searches for the studies. I'd personally put minoxidil at ~20% average, because I account for possible bias in the studies and some studies show a bit lower numbers than the graphs of the studies that are below. But like Resu said many people don't react to minoxidil, most probably because of the lack of sulfotransferase activity. So one must understand that this average would be way better if more people would respond to the medication. So people are actually searching for compounds to upregulate sulfotransferase activity to possibly enhance minoxidil response;

This would suggest that there may be a continuum of minoxidil response directly proportional to sulfotransferase activity in the hair follicle. Extending this logic, this finding implies that upregulation of sulfotransferase could potentiallybe an effective adjunctive therapy to topical minoxidil. Many compounds have been reported to upregulate sulfotransferases in the liver (13,14). We are now investigating the effect of novel compounds on sulfotransferase activity in the scalp.

And, yes people who respond well are actually well above 30% with minoxidil easy. One has to only look at the pictures of good minoxidil responders and see a very good cosmetic change in a time span of already 3 months. It's just that a small percentage of people actually respond well and even a smaller percentage is really lucky to get the (major) cosmetic difference.

If we take all of this SM still is half as good as minoxidil in the same time span. So it will have to perform twice as good to match minoxidil. SM won't maintain your hair either, that's a big joke. Also people make it that it might be great to add to the arsenal. But are people really this naive? What do people think? That a company will proceed to commercialize a treatment, which is around the same as minoxidil just because you want to add it to your "arsenal"? Come on man. Companies don't give a sh*t about you. It's all about profit and ROI%. Most people wouldn't even give a sh*t about putting multiple topicals on their scalp each day either.

A compound that can't get some sort of significant advantage against current treatments simply won't reach the market. Allergan is a beast of a pharmaceutical company and bimatoprost performed around the same as minoxidil given their last clinical trial. Guess what they do? Well they go back to the drawing board. They will probably give it one more shot. But if they still won't outperform minoxidil they will simply drop the treatment, it's that simple.

SM seems to simply shift the hair follicle cycle. A 10% increase could simply be just anagen initiation in healthy telogen hair follicles. Like I said previously telogen hair follicles are very sensitive to environmental stimuli and b-catenin (WNT) is the "point of no return" prior to anagen initiation. SM won't probably do **** on bald temples for example where the goal is to actually to revive unhealthy miniaturized hair follicles.

I might be wrong on a longer time frame, but I'm highly sure this won't do any better than minoxidil even on a longer time frame. I'd love to be really excited for a treatment too, cause this is getting really old now. But we'll see, waiting time again I guess.....:whistle: